2006 Predictions Revisited
According to the assiduously researched book Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? The experts we are all familiar with, the guys on the TV telling us exactly what will happen, are no better than the average person when it comes to predicting the future. To put a more familiar face on the outcome of the studies, think of it as a long-term monkey v Wall Street stock guru contest where the monkey wins 50% of the time.
The result is counterintuitive to most of us. Experts are supposed to be, well, experts after all. There are several conclusions you can draw from the study, one of the least logical is that the more thick headed the prediction maker is the more accurate the predictions will be. To judge the value of this theory AppleMatters retained a person so dense he literally has to remind himself to breathe several times a minute.
In the waning days of 2005, I (the aforementioned egregiously stupid AM writer) made a set of predictions about 2006. This is a good time in the year to take a look back and see how the predictions fared.
1) iBooks show up without FireWire.
There are weasel ways to get out of this (they aren’t really iBooks, they’re MacBooks) but those are methods of denial best left to real experts. In this case, I was wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong. Two notable people who were sure FireWire would be around? Chris Howard and Luke Mindenhall-Ward (with whom I lost a bet).
2) Apple Movie Store
The jury is still out on this one. Apple, if rumors are to be believed, is trying to get a movie store going but meeting a lot of resistance. We are talking the here and now and right now, the prediction is: Inaccurate, reported as lame.
3. Everything but Xserve powered by Intel.
When the prediction was made, Apple was still targeting 2007 as the end of transition. The news from Apple now is that the transition will be complete by the end of 2006. I’d call it half right but the original article did offer 3 to 1 odds that every new Mac would be powered by Intel before Vista shipped. Being generous, this gets a nice “prescient” stamp.
4. Apple Branded PVR
Hasn’t happened yet. There are reasons to hope, when asked about the device at a shareholders meeting Steve Jobs said “We hear ya.” Of course, that is Steve Jobs, “We hear ya” can either mean, “we’re working on it” or “We hear you and don’t care.” Steve Jobs’ cryptic statement aside, this prediction goes in the “oops” pile.
5. A true video iPod
The rumors are still flying around about this piece of vapor gadgetry. If one was coming you’d think it would already be available to keep the iPod “must have” momentum going. In short, this prediction was adds to the list of reasons I’m considered more than just a little slow.
Those were the predictions about stuff that would happen. There were also five predictions about things that wouldn’t happen.
1. The Apple phone
Suckers for all things Apple (like myself) are buying Motorola RAZRs, not a spiffy Apple designed cell phone, a shame really. Personal sadness is somewhat mollified by being correct.
2. Mass pirating of OS X
Hasn’t happened yet, whether that is testament to the engineers at Apple making pirating difficult or a reflection of demand for OS X isn’t clear. In a case the reasons don’t matter, the result does, put a happy face with a star sticker next to this one.
3. Apple getting over ten percent of the computing market
Some “predictions” are little more than restating the very obvious. Still, the prediction was made at a time when hopes were high for a massive Mac migration. AppleMatters: Kreskin Inside!
4. A trouble free initial release of new Intel Macs
Most people would cite the MacBook Pro battery issue, the yellowing of MacBooks or some other minor quibble but, thus far, the transition hasn’t had many hardware problems. Stamp this prediction: REJECTED.
5. Much Lower Mac Prices
There was an idea that with Intel would come cheap Mac prices. It made sense, if Apple uses all standard stuff they should charge standard prices. Of course, Mac pricing is more complicated than that. This prediction gets a big, fat “full credit.”
Time for an overall grade, is the theory that the most dullardly among us are the most accurate at predictions correct? Some of the prognostications are still possible but enough has happened that we can declare a grade for the look into the future. So far, subject to change, I have 5 right and 5 wrong. There’s only one grade you can a give a performance like that, in the words of Strong Bad F—.
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5. Much Lower Mac Prices -C.S.
With the recent release of the new iMac for education (formerly eMac <sniff, sniff>) for $899, Apple is finally moving below a grand with a complete bundle.
Unlike the Mac mini $599, this one is fully loaded for education and the cost-conscious Mac afficionado.
It is not available from the Apple Store so you have to take your son/daughter to the campus bookstore to get one. I hope Apple will change their minds and offer this to the general public like the eMac it is succeeding.
Yes, it is $100-$200 from my ideal low-cost AIO (all-in-one) configuration but lets give Apple some pats on the back for dipping their toes under the psychological threshold of $1000.
From my side of the fence, BRAVO Apple! <applause>. You are almost there!
I give this “2006 prediction” a W.I.P. (Work in Progress) stamp.
This is a good time in the year to take a look back and see how the predictions fared.
The year is only half-way over, Chris. Still plenty of time to be right…or remain wrong.
I know what you mean Beeb but it is good to see where things are headed as compared to what people expcted 6 months ago. Besides a lot of olks forget about there ealier predictions particularly when they are wrong.
RI, well, I got appled with the iMac for education, it came out after this peice was posted. Still, not really a much lower priced computer if you compare to the previous education offering
Still, not really a much lower priced computer if you compare to the previous education offering -C.S.
Pricewise, it is actually $100 more than the eMac was but look at what you’re getting. The spec list is about the same as the $1299 17” iMac just less storage (only 80GB), a combo drive, and 512MB, and a Core Duo to boot!
I still think this config is aggressive and I know Apple can do one better next time out with the consumer iMac or an uplevel Mac mini package.
...it is good to see where things are headed as compared to what people expcted 6 months ago -C.S.
Six months is an eternity for a dedicated A.M. reader to wait for. I like that “half-yearly” right/wrong/maybe prediction look-back. It gives you exactly six more months of bragging, change of course, or just repent!
Hey robotech infidel, you forgot one thing about the iMac: the graphics is not X1600, it’s the Intel GMA950 with 64MB of VRAM, so I think the “normal” iMac is actually cheaper considering all those things you get (160GB, X1600, Super Drive) for just 400 more
...you forgot one thing about the iMac: the graphics is not X1600… -wbt
Yeah, you’re correct on the graphics. But this config is meant for students in a classroom environment anyway so a souped-up GPU is not really needed. I doubt Mrs. Smith will be teaching how to perform that “trick” in Quake or Warcraft anytime soon!
Even small children will not need so much as what the GMA950 chip already provides. Doodling and interactive games are not pixel or polygon-hungry apps in any case. Same goes with just “Googling” around the net.
So, Apple is right with this configuration. It is targeting the right audience for what it’s got. Apple is heading to the right direction and perhaps next time, this price level will be occupied by the more serious 17” iMac consumer version, then this config can easily fit lower in the price chain ($699?).
Cheers!