Apple showing up at CES means it hates You

We've all had the experience of being madly in love. Those days where you could think of no one else but the girl or guy you were infatuated with at the moment. For the lucky ones out there the infatuation lasts a lifetime. For the rest of us it ended with an "it's not you it's me" moment. In some cases it ends with a "I've decided I'm gay" moment. That happened to me. Sixteen times.

You can get over the unrequited love thing, you can probably get over the "you made me gay" thing (about fifteen times, after that you start to wonder) but what is harder to get over is when the girl you made gay suddenly shows up at a party with your best friend. You're hurt on two levels. One because it means it you were the problem and secondly because it means she isn't going to send you those videos she promised.

The Apple community is at the party moment right now. They've been told that Apple won't be attending Macworld 2010 (which will happen anyway) and the community has been fed a line about the expense of the event and introduced to the notion that Apple can reach more people through the company's corporate stores than the company can with Macworld.

Those are arguable reasons. Apple has plenty of money and there are a ton of great products you can see, feel and touch at Macworld that will never see the inside of an Apple Store. But maybe those were just lines to minimize the inevitable criticism because there are rumors that Apple will be attending a trade show next year, the insanely large Consumer Electronic Show.

Apple showing up at CES makes a lot of sense. Bill Gates did the CES keynote forever and Ballmer was not a very good replacement for Bill this year. Not that Bill had set the bar unreasonably high but if Ballmer doesn't get to jump around and yell "Developers" with more repetition than lyrics by AC/DC he's just not going to put on his best show. In any event new blood, new leadership, is needed for CES and who better to deliver the keynote than renewed Steve Jobs? Heck, Phil Schiller could pull the trick off with style He might not be Steve Jobs when it comes to public speaking but Ballmer is still looking up at him.

There's more to the idea than just a new keynote speaker. Apple isn't just about computers anymore. At best Macs are a very profitable secondary computer business at worst they are a pricey iPhone accessory. Apple knows the future of the company is in consumer electronics, the iPhone has taken off faster than anything else Apple has ever done. It is a safe bet that Apple is hoping to mimic the success of the iPhone with some other consumer focused product.

Where better to hype a product than the Consumer Electronics Show? If you're thinking that Apple gets plenty of coverage from Macworld as it is you're right but being at CES provides Apple with an entirely new herd of media (and CES is media types only, regular users need not apply). If you're feeling a bit unsure if Apple would really be exposed to a new crop of reporters remember that CES and Macworld usually overlap and every person you talk to at Macworld starts the conversation by saying something like "I've been coming to Macworld's since ought dickety six, with an onion tied to my belt as was the style of the time." and you'll realize that there is a lot of fresh media blood to expose to the Apple way of presenting things.

Making sense for Apple on a marketing level and not pissing long time fans off aren't the same thing so you have to ask yourself if Apple would really be so bold as to skip Macworld just to attend CES. The repercussions on the Mac community would be huge. Small vendors that are able to get attention at Macworld won't be able to get attention when they have to compete with a booth that has 400" LED TVs. The vendors will go quietly into the night but the users won't. If Apple confirms a CES appearance you know that there will be screaming, the only question is just how loud will the screaming be?

The easy bet is that it will be the loudest collective howl of Mac users to date. The rumbling at the change to OS X will be a mouse squeak in comparison, the cacophony that accompanied the switch to Intel will be a golf clap. People love Macworld and if Apple shows up at CES they are going to see it as the ultimate betrayal. You'll hear stories about how much money they've spent going to Macworld only to callously chucked aside when something better came along. You'll hear the laments of how they stuck by Apple when no one else did. People will wonder (loudly) where Apple's loyalty to them is. After all the hardcore have been so loyal to Apple.

Here's the thing: Everyone who complains is someone Apple already has. Why keep Macworld going if you're preaching to the already converted? The minute you say, "I've been at every Macworld since.." you've just told Apple you have both too much time and money invested to go anywhere else. In short, the people who are going to be the most pissed about Apple leaving Macworld for CES are the exact same people least likely to leave Apple. Apple knows it has those folks, why bother catering to them?

That is a calloused view, but accurate. By pleasing the long time fans Apple can expect to get a few percent of the computer market. By chasing consumers not yet using Apple stuff the company can rope in large chunks of the uninitiated. It seems like a cold position but that is corporate calculus for you.

The way things look right now is exactly like the party described earlier. Apple fans have been given an excuse so as not to hurt their feelings but if Apple shows up at CES those same fans will know that Apple isn't interested in them, Apple is interested in every person they haven't traded barcodes and credit card numbers with yet. There will be some hurt feelings but be realistic, Apple can take you for granted because you love the company so much. Maybe Apple will even manage an uncomfortable "Hi" to the old fans somehow at CES next year.

Of course Apple might not show up at CES next either. It is just a rumor after all. But if that were to happen then the only conclusion would be that the reason Apple isn't showing up at Macworld is to strengthen the already strong position of Apple Stores as the gatekeeper of Apple accesories. But Apple isn't the kind of company that would hope to make a profit on everything that went on one of the products it produced is it?