Bill Gates is Right, and Wrong About The iPod
Bill Gates is at it again. Pimping the ugly iPod imitator Creative Zen. Chatting up replaceable batteries, FM tuners, and the like. His comments over the past few months about the iPod have increased probably due to the fact that he doesn’t have a cogent answer for why the iPod is rocking the marketplace. His latest blow is a low one. Not content to only diss the iPod he takes aim at our beloved Mac.
“I think you can draw parallels here with the computer — here, too, Apple was once extremely strong with its Macintosh and graphic user interface, like with the iPod today, and then lost its position.”
There are, indeed, some apparent parrellels to the Mac story. Looking at the issue very simplistically one could say that, indeed, Apple is following its closed system paradigm once again. Want to use an iPod? Great. But you have to buy songs from Apple’s iTunes Music Store. Want to play songs from the iTunes Music Store on a portable player? The iPod is your only choice.
On the face of it this does look similar to so many other Apple decision. The lack of clones (except for a short moment in time). The lack of licensing its operating system to anyone else.
But the big difference that Bill Gates is missing in his analysis is the market context.
The typical iPod consumer is radically different than the typical computer purchaser. By in large computers are used by corporations, businesses, and schools. In this market Microsoft and its hardware ilk have blossomed. Why? Cost. Corporations care most about cost. Microsoft has (so far) won the desktop battles because it won in the boardroom not because it is the better OS.
The iPod is a different story. There is no corporation to set the standard. This means that, ultimately, the consumer will decide. And this time, I think the consumer will pick what it would have picked in the first place, the far superior product.
I picked up the Creative Zen flash player the other day at a local Cambridge Soundworks (where the sales rep informed me that the Creative Zen was, and I quote, crushing the iPod). The Zens were lined up in different colors like a bunch of bic lighters. It felt horribly cheap in my hand. The display looked interesting, but the whole thing felt like a cheap kids toy in my hand.
Now there are some other MP3 makers who make good products. Just like there are some computer manufactures who make decent computers, and, consumers can do Mac-like things like edit home movies, etc. But none of the current MP3 makers come with the integrated model that is the iTunes and iPod experience. It is such a good experience that no one cares that you can’t buy from Buymusic (are they still around?) or Napster.
But back to Bill. He also says that what will ultimately kill the iPod (oh, and yeah, the immensely successful Blackberry) is not the Creative Zen, but the mobile phone. The phone is where you will have your music, calendar, address book, all integrated, of course, with Windows Mobile.
This is where Bill could have a point. The standalone Palm is largely dead. A mere memory of the dotcom days when having a Palm 100 was the thing. Now it is either a Blackberry, or Palm-integrated phone. This is the one device that people are carrying around. Throw in a hard-drive and a decent (read Microsoft) user-interface and suddenly the iPod is like the old standalone Palms of the past, relegated to dusty draws and eBay.
I must admit, Bill’s point about phones makes sense. But not because it will be a better product. Rather it is because of the aforementioned corporations who killed the Mac. In this case the corporation are the Nextels, Verizons, and Cingulars of the world. They want in on the digital music game but on their terms. They also control the hardware and here an iPod phone (if Apple were to ever make one) would die. Firstly because the phone providers control the shelf space, and secondly because they have a say concerning what software goes on their phones. Even if a non-Apple phone running iTunes were to come out they will want to dictate the price and get their cut.
History will ultimately answer the longevity of the iPod. Indeed, if we take Bill’s example of the Macintosh one could argue that the iPod would do pretty darn well to follow in its path. The Mac has survived and excelled. And these days the buzz is all about market growth for the Mac, while Microsoft struggles with challenges from Firefox, Google, and the open source movement.
Regardless of what happens to the landscape I do think a little scuffing of the iPod’s sheen will be good for Apple. Derrick Story said it best recently when he said the thing he liked the most about Tiger was that it reminded people that Apple was not just about the iPod. The iPod is cool and all (and I say this as someone who wrote a book about it!), but ultimately, in the history of Apple, it is far from the most interesting product. But it is fun to see the iPod needle Bill Gates, reminding us that, once again, Apple still has the upper hand when it comes to innovation and design.
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Comments
The one thing I have learned about so-called “integrated devices” (cell phone, PDA, camera, cheese grater) is that they do every function poorly.
I would much rather have separate devices. That way if I want to have a high-quality camera, I can do that while having a different MP3 player. If I decide to upgrade my MP3-playing deivce, I don’t have to throw everything out in order to do so.
I, for one, hate these integrated things. I don’t need a stinkin’ camera on my cell phone. It’s a phone. It’s for talking to people.
I hated my phone interface so much, I eventually wound up getting a treo 650. Love it. No esoteric buttons or sequences to remember.
No way I’m going to blow the awesome battery life I have now with my smart phone by playing songs on it.
Was there any chance Bill was going to praise the ipod/iTunes? I don’t think so. So why would I listen to him?
For those who think Mp3 phones are a bad idea, here are a few things to consider:
Radiation - Not to worry, the phone doesn’t transmit when you’re playing tunes.
Battery life – It’s the phone’s transmitter that is the battery hog. When the phone is in Mp3 mode, the power requirement will be the same as an Mp3 player.
User interface: Granted, there are too many button sequences to remember IF you use all of the phone’s integrated features. However, most people will choose the few features they like and take the time to learn how to use them (just like your computer software). This is no different than the old VCR problem – Who ever used the clock anyway?
What happens to my tunes when I buy a new phone? The same thing that happens when you buy a new iPod or computer - you move them.
I hate my phone so I bought a Treo 650 - So you exchanged your phone with PDA features for a PDA with phone features. Great idea - Maybe someone will build an iPod with a phone feature.
It won’t sell – Sure it will. Tens of millions of people have phones that have email, PDA, still cameras, movie cameras, voice recorders, music ring tones and even an electronic wallet. You may not use the feature but it will be there.
It will drive up the cost – Not likely, it’s all done in software. The hardware is already there.
Like it or not - Use it or not, your next phone will likely have a built in iPod or Mp3 player and a built in TV.
What’s next? Just tune in an old episode of Star Trek and check out the Tricorder, the Communicator and the Padd ( Personal Access Display Device) .
In about 1970, my folks bought a whizz bang all-in-one TV, radio and record player. It was great, but I’ve never seen one again.
I’m not sure integration is what people really want unless there’s a good functional match between the components. Like that all in one, they seem to have novelty value for a while then fade away.
Some might argue the stereo system. but all the components are doing the same thing - playing music. Whereas the TV, DVD and VCR which are for viewing are not sold as part of stereos.
A PDA/phone will certainly work from an address book point of view, but what else really? And how do you take notes on them, and look up your calendar while you’re on the phone?
People, as the iPod has proven, don’t always want a you beaut all in one. There’s plenty of music players that come with FM radio, voice recorders and other bells and whistles, yet the iPod continues to trounce them. People seem to want to choose their own add-ons.
And what if you’re hosting a rocking party and you’ve got your music player-cell phone plugged into your stereo and it’s the life of the party but then it rings and you have to answer?
And if you did have an all in one phone-camera-music player-PDA and it got lost or stolen, how would you feel?
Technology that *belongs* together goes together and stays together. But technology that doesn’t, will just be a novelty and you’ll find it in a dusty corner of a bric-a-brac store one day, along with my folks old TV/Radio/Record player.
It’s amazing how history repeats itself and yet we’re all so baffled when it does. CB radios, PDA’s, pay phones, pagers and even plain old cameras vanishing into thin air – NOT.
I’m convinced that old Star Trekees are designing cell phones and none are employed by Wall Street. That’s right; there has been tens of millions of dollars lost in market research alone because we’re just plain stupid. It took Wall Street more that a year to figure out what happened to the PDA and pager, when all they had to do was watch an old version of Star Trek. The Tricorder, the Communicator and the Padd (Personal Access Display Device) are here but we call it the “Cell Phone”. Maybe we should change the name to Teleporter – A device that converts things into little electrons, transmits them to another Teleporter and converts them back to pictures, music, video, voice messages, email or money. Maybe a simple name change would end all the confusion. Let’s give it a try.
A fully loaded Teleporter might have a PDA, walky talky, pager, camera, game player, voice recorder, Mp3 and iPod music player, radio, TV, Web Browser, remote control, electronic wallet, GPS, voice recognition, voice mail, email, video mail, instant messaging, electronic ID tag, electronic car and door key, an alarm system, a weather station, a heart rate monitor and… oh yes, a phone. The benefits of a fully loaded Teleporter are vast but for now, let’s just focus on music—where it’s at and where it’s going.
First there’s the iPod by Apple, a battery operated device that plugs into your computer and downloads a limited number of music files. It has a very nice user interface but for all practical purposes it’s a memory stick with a user interface and headphones. You either play the music through the headphones or plug the iPod into another device that plays the music. Then, there is the Virtual Jukebox such as Rhapsody by RealNetworks, where you have access to over a million songs that can be played on demand from a computer. Rhapsody uses streaming technology to computers but music files can also be downloaded to a portable player similar to the iPod (another memory stick).
For those who want to buy a select number of music files, the iPod is a great device and for those who want to pay a monthly subscription for unlimited access to virtually any music files, Rhapsody is your best bet. But if you want unlimited access on a portable device, no mater where you are, you’ll need a music player that has a transmitter and a receiver so that it can communicate wirelessly with your preferred music supplier. Gee, doesn’t a cell phone have a transmitter and receiver already…
Now, let’s take an iPod and Rhapsody and a cell phone and hook them all together and we have the perfect music player. Yes, it’s a Teleporter. It has the capacity to access and play any music titles ever recorded. You can rent, sample or buy. You can even send your play list to a friend’s Teleporter or to your home stereo system. Just imagine, you’re jogging along the beach listening to music and you hear a short little alert. Your Teleporter says, “The song you have been waiting for is now available”. You say, Play new song” and continue your run – All without a computer.
So, when you hear Bill Gates say that he doesn’t believe that the success of the iPod is sustainable, don’t believe him. He’s late to the wireless game and even Blackberry offers better wireless email than Microsoft. The iPod is simply morphing into a cell phone. And, when you see a company like Yahoo compete on price alone, don’t get confused, streaming media alone is just a commodity. The real battle will be for the huge wireless market where cell phones dwarf music players. The winner will be the pacesetter of technology. Therefore, my money is on RealNetworks and Apple or someone who watches more Star Trek.
There’s synergy between a pda address/contacts and a phone. Many moons ago I had the pain of dialing a number I had in another pda device. I haven’t missed the calendar while on the phone, but then again I could get to it by going to speaker phone. The loud phone ringer works well with the pda’s alarm feature. The pda is also a nicer input device for SMS messages. Seriously, it’s a good marriage.
I like the idea of being able to use songs for ring tones. But other than that, I don’t see much benefit of combining a phone and an music player. The only reason anyone is tempted is because phones have already secured spots in most people’s pockets—it’s always with you. Ok, but my headphones aren’t always with me so what’s the point. If I have to remember to bring my headphones, I can bring my ipod shuffle. And if I listen to four hours music at the cost of eight hours of standby, I’m going to be upset if there is an emergency and my phone has no juice. Also, a phone is a social device, listening to headphone music isn’t, which is the reason its in your pocket in the first place.
An ipod type device would have more synergy combining with a game device or e-book reader. Heck, you could even listen to music while playing a game. They are all entertainment devices, have similar distribution, and run with a similar razor blade model. In fact, itunes could be used to sell other kinds of media as well. And as far as when you use it, the ipod or psp or gba all have something else in common—they make great solitaire.
we had FM in mobiles for years (in europe).
we still have compact FM players for years.
since Apple have four iPod lines (shuffle, mini, classic, photo)
to fill the price variations from 99 to 499
they could create new line(s) of products to be presented for more customers.
the trick is to repeat success after success
hype after hype
impress fans, press and general Joe/Jane
I just can’t wait to hear someone saying that he cannot use his phone because it crashed and display a “bule screen”.