Dissecting the MacDailyNews Rumor

If you believe the exclusive rumor published by MacDailyNews, these are dark times for AT&T and Android handset makers. Well not dark times right this second, but dark times in a few days.

How bad will it be? The iPhone on Verizon will be announced right after Christmas and it will be LTE. If you're wondering what the big deal is with LTE that's okay. LTE stands for Long Term Evolution and is one of the next steps in the wireless world. But it doesn't really matter what LTE means specifically because it means only one thing to consumers: another spec. Sure, LTE networks aren't abundant right now, but they might be by the time your contract runs out. If the only LTE phone is the iPhone Android takes a hard shot right in the sternum. Sure, handset makers will scramble and get an LTE phone out there, but until they actually get one, LTE stands for Let's Talk Envy.

Wait, that doesn't work. Let's Try Everything? Leo Talks Easily? Limes Trump Emus? Somewhere there is a clever acronym that highlights Apple's lead in this area, but your inept author is unable to find it. The point being that the perception will be that the iPhone is so far ahead of the competition it can use a network that barely exists.

Moving on. It gets better for Apple and Verizon while getting worse for Google and AT&T. Rumor also has it that as AT&T iPhones out sell Android phones by a 3 to 1 margin. It also turns out, according to some, that Verizon growth is stagnant while AT&T is growing at a nice clip thanks almost completely to the iPhone. Three to one? That is a significant margin. If that number translates to Verizon then Android adoption will seriously drop.

The thing is that number won't be replicated at Verizon in the short term. In the short term Apple will move much more than 3 iPhones for every Android phone. The pent up demand for an iPhone on Verizon is underestimated. You can imagine that everyone who has an iPhone already has one but you'd be wrong. The one thing people value more than a spiffy phone is a reliable network. In the wireless world reliable network means Verizon.

The rumor certainly seems intriguing, but it also seems a little too good to be true if you're one of the many who want the iPhone to become the standard for smart phones. (For the record, the iPhone already is the standard. There are three phones left. Actual phones, phones that want to be the iPhone, and a Blackberries). But how plausible is the rumor?

The iPhone will be announced and available right after Christmas

This seems odd, when was the last time Apple announced something and had it ready to go? The original iPod shuffle? It doesn't really matter, the notion that Apple can secretly crank out a bajillion iPhones and have them stocked up at Verizon warehouses while being unable to produce a single white 4G iPhone is pushing the limits of credibility. The questions don't stop there. Why would Verizon be sitting on pallets upon pallets of iPhones? We live in the world of freshness dated beer and just in time manufacturing. Having stockpiles of products laying around costs manufacturers money and flexibility. It is more fiscally responsible to overnight a shipment to the stores the day before the release.

The iPhone is not being shipped to any 3^rd Party retailers to avoid leaks

This seems sensible, if you buy the notion that there are huge pallets of products laying about. Verizon would have more control over phones in the company's possession than phones being stocked at third party retailers. That said, as Wikileaks proves, it doesn't matter if all the secret stuff is guarded by corporate employees or not, the information will get out.

It is coming out right after Christmas

Supposedly, the reason the iPhone is coming out right after Christmas is because AT&T demanded it in a vain hope that this would boost holiday sales of the iPhone and lock in more consumers. It seems plausible but cell phones are hard to give as gifts. Unless you're going to take responsibility for two years of bills it is like giving someone a short-lived puppy they may or may not want. Waiting until immediately after Christmas might get a few more people hooked on the iPhone, but when every contract-free Joe walking knows the iPhone is coming to Verizon soon it is hard to buy into the notion that Christmas sales are the thing keeping Apple from announcing the iPhone on Verizon.

Those filled with holiday spirit are probably amenable to the argument that Apple doesn't want to ruin AT&T's seasonal cheer, imagine the disconsolate execs at AT&T's Christmas party! On the other hand Apple has only cared what another company thought when the question was: "Is this enough dough to buy your company?"

While MacDailyNews's rumor is plenty juicy and makes sense on the first pass, the more you examine it the more you have to wonder just how likely the scenario is. As MDN carefully cautioned, "it should be treated as a rumor." This is always good practice when talking about unannounced Apple stuff. Until Steve Jobs says it, don't believe it. And even if Steve Jobs says it, it might not happen (white iPhone). All in all, even if parts of the this rumor turn out to be true, the preponderance of the information seems to be of a fictive nature. However, if the rumor is true, the days after Christmas would be fantastically entertaining!

All that said, you can't blame MDN for publishing the rumor. MDN claims they have a reliable source, but "reliable" can mean a lot of different things. That noted, if an angry hobbit came to me in a dream and related the exact same information I'd write it up the next day. As long as the source is an actual human how can you not publish it?