McCain and Giuliani Take the Plunge, the Water will Prove to be very Cold

When SpinMatters handicapped the Presidential race we didn’t think it was too likely that Rudy Giuliani would run (pegged the chances at 29.74%) of course a little time and a very public, by way of the recent election, repudiation of the religious right section of the Republican party makes things a little rosier for the Mayor of New York.

Giuliani has a lot of things going for him. Widely seen as a hero in the days after 9/11 Giuliani’s competence as an administrator is generally unquestioned. He is also pro choice which is a position the moderates find pleasing. Throw in the fact the fact that Giuliani had an open affair and those worried about executive branch intrusion into the bedroom will likely be mollified. The most likely attack by the Democrats on Giuliani will concern his strong anti crime push (It’s Giuliani Time!) but one that would surely backfire, Americans love to hear that crime is being driven down.

With Giuliani the big trouble, the last stab at public governance, comes in the primaries. Convincing Iowans that a big city mayor is a great choice to be a big country President is going to be tough. A chore made all the tougher by a Republican candidate sincerely courting the religious vote. Still, he has a great advantage because, for the time being, the power of the evangelical wing of the Republican Party has been vastly diminished. The evangelicals may still hold sway with many voters but those voters are disheartened and the leaders voices won’t be received (Hi Ted, is that meth and penis I smell on your breath?) the same careful consideration they once were.

For now, Giuliani really only has to worry about John McCain (Spinny projection: 71%). John McCain will be a particular challenge for Giuliani. McCain is widely seen as a moderate and no friend, this is a good thing, of George Bush. But McCain has the ever-present problem of being a Senator. When a Senator runs against someone who hasn’t been forced to vote on controversial issues things get rough. A former Governor or Mayor) can mock votes that a Senator has made more out of political obligation than fervent belief. The tactic might not be the most honest differentiator ever devised but it is very effective.

So, two big guns are in the race for the Republican nomination and these particular guns will be fighting over the moderate sector of the party. How does the battle play out between these two heavy hitters? Does McCain’s military record trump Giuliani’s performance in New York City in the days after 9/11? And most importantly, is either candidate a top choice of the power brokers of the Republican Party. The answer to the latter question is assuredly “no” neither candidate is considered right enough. With these two splitting the votes of the moderate Republicans the door is left wide open for a Republican that appeals more to farther right section of the party. Running against each other is the worst news possible for both candidates.