The Soon To Be Most Hyped Up Non-Stories of 2006

In looking back over the last few years I can see certain trends. Some good (hybrid cars), some bad (Britney Spears) and some just mind-numbingly stupid (reality TV shows, “You’re fired!”). But one trend that never seems to die is the “over optimistic tech analysis”. There are hundreds of them out there and I have scoured the net to bring you some of their hopeless dreams.

1. Linux on the desktop ~ keeping the dream alive for 8 years and counting
It is sad, in a way, to see this happen every year. First it starts off with Linux sites proclaiming that this year Linux on the desktop was really going to take off. This year Windows was going to finally be replaced in corporations and governments by the friendly little penguin. And as proof they offer tales of how the Central African Equatorial Democratic Republic of Zambibiaswana-Bisssay Leonitom is switching all of their government computers over to Linux. And if more proof is needed they readily point to the European country of Khazagovinasteinstaneniaovika and their speedy Linux adoption. However, as the year rolls on no real progress is ever reported.

This doesn’t stop Linux advocates from loudly proclaiming how superior their OS is and how it’s free though as in speech and not as in beer, even though no one really knows what that means. Soon the argument shifts over to other aspects of the fight and invariably someone mentions on a Linux site that maybe Linux isn’t being adopted very quickly because IT ISN"T EASY TO USE. This of course brings down the wrath of the penguin lovers down on the poor poster and he is drowned out in a flood of hate mail. His original post is never answered in any meaningful way, but that is ultimately irrelevant because by this time it is December and everybody gears up to do it all over again next year.

2. The iPod killer ~ uh, what we meant was, uh, uh, never mind
Anybody remember the original iPod killers? You know, the ones that were supposed to bury the original iPod? They had more features, bigger harddrives, uglier colors and they came at various price points. Oh how the tech pundits rejoiced! They were almost wetting themselves from the joy of it all. And they loudly proclaimed that Apple had made their last mistake in trying to sell an expensive MP3 player that didn’t even have a radio tuner! “Those fools!”, the pundits crowed, “they will be destroyed! It is just like the Mac all over again. Cheaper clones using Microsoft’s technology will quickly bury them.” And so, after making such proclamations, they sat back and watched the carnage.

Only, something odd seemed to be happening. The little player that could, seemed to be kicking the s*#t out of the competition. And tech writers the nation over shook their collective heads in disbelief at what they saw. It couldn’t be! The iPod didn’t have a RADIO TUNER! How could you possibly be successful without that? And it can’t record audio! And it doesn’t come in different colors! And it was expensive! Why? Why was it selling so well? They just couldn’t figure it out. And so the first year passed.

Suddenly it was the second year, and even fiercer than before, the pundits claimed that this was the year of the dreaded “iPod Killer” (scary music plays in background). This year MS and friends had finally gotten their act together. This year would be the year of the iPod’s downfall. And yet the iPod gained market-share, selling millions upon millions of units. Then, a new tactic was tried. Interoperability! The critics had a new buzz word! And so the whining began. First Creative, then Napster, soon everyone was decrying the “closed” system that Apple was forcing (those mean people at Apple), yes forcing I say, on the poor consumers of the world. Things only got worse when the ITMS came to town. Soon everyone was complaining that their systems didn’t work with Apple’s system and that just wasn’t fair. Boo-hoo they cried! It isn’t fair! Make them play fair, they wailed. And yet, oddly enough, at no point did anyone consider making a better product. No one tried to make an easier system or a more user-friendly one. No, they just complained that life wasn’t fair and that somehow they should be compensated for that. Man, reality’s a b*@$h isn’t it?

And so it went. Columnist after columnist declaring that any minute now something was going to come out and dethrone the iPod. It never happened. Fast forward to today. What is the newest iPod killer? Why cellphones of course! Expect to hear more of that in the coming year. “Cellphones will be the end of the iPod”, “Why carry 2 devices around when you could just use one?”, expect to see slogans like that in 2006. And when you do just sigh, smile and readjust your white earbuds.

3. Firefox will own %50 of the market ~ sorry but there are still to many morons out there
I want Firefox to win, I really do. It is a great browser (one of the best in my opinion). It is fast, powerful, easily expandable and fairly secure. It has already grabbed over %15 of the current market in the USA and can boast even higher stats in other countries. And in 2006 it will make gains, especially when Firefox 2.0 comes out. However, it won’t dominate the web browser market anytime soon. You see, when Firefox first came out only the real techies out there used it. That accounted for the first 3% of its gains. Soon, the slightly less powerful tech users jumped on board, that brought the total up to about 7%. And then, all of those techies told their wives, girlfriends, parents, brothers, sisters, friends and dentist about Firefox and a good deal of them switched, which brings us up to that %15 mark. However, until businesses start replacing IE with Firefox then it will be a slow and steady march to victory, not the blitzkrieg that many had hoped it would be. So, keep using Firefox but don’t be fooled when you start hearing talk of market share much past %20-25, anything else is just wishful thinking.

4. Google will take over the world ~ this is what keeps Bill Gates up at night, that and nightmares about arguing with Ballmer in a furniture store
Google isn’t going to take over the world. They aren’t going to release a set of web-based applications for free that will shut down Microsoft. They aren’t going to release their own browser. What they will do is make the number one search engine even better. What they will do is expand it to include books, music and movies. What they will do is expand Google earth until it becomes another standard. See, it is important to separate the likely from the “only in your dreams or Bill’s nightmares”. Google is a hot company right now, and I have no doubt that they leak stories sometimes just to screw with Microsoft’s head.

And it works, that is the amazing part. You only have to look at the unfinished, half-ass mess that the “Live Demo” was to see that Google has Microsoft reacting to every little rumor. And as far as Google is concerned that is just where they want them. If Microsoft ever settles down, picks a good strategy and the commits itself to it then Google might be in big trouble. But how much easier it is to keep MS fighting a hundred little battles at once. Get them to try and focus on operating systems and web browsers and mobil phones and games systems and online searching and online ads and office suites and open document formats and map software and live on demand online software and and and and a hundred other things at prevent MS from completely focusing on Google. Will Google do well in the coming year? Of course, they are a smart company with plenty of resources and they are driving towards something big. Will they shatter MS or otherwise drastically reduce their power? Not this year.